Daily Market Update
- Last Friday, the standout term deposit rate reached 5.70% for a 5-year term.
- Domestic NCD margins stood at +45, while those seeking higher yields turned to foreign counterparties, who were offering rates of up to +50 for 3 months.
- Today, market activity may remain subdued as participants opt to await the RBA’s announcement.
U.S. Labor Market Weaker Than Expected
- In October, U.S. employers added 150,000 jobs, marking a decline from the previous month and falling short of expectations (estimated at 180k).
- The report spurred positive sentiment in U.S. futures, suggesting that investors believed the Federal Reserve had completed its tightening measures.
- Although the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, earnings growth slightly underperformed, registering at 0.2%.
- The ongoing steady pace of hiring has bolstered consumer spending, a crucial driver of the economy.
- FOMC member Kashkari remarked on the slowing labor market, which aligns with the Fed’s objectives, and observed that balance is returning to the economy.
- This data further fuelled the prevailing market narrative that the Federal Reserve had concluded its tightening efforts.
- Despite the U.S. developments, uncertainty looms over the upcoming RBA meeting in Australia.
The Week Ahead
- The primary focus of the week will be the RBA meeting scheduled for Tuesday.
- A majority of economists are anticipating a rate hike, with cash rate futures pricing in a 48% probability of an increase.
- The unexpected uptick in Q3 2023 inflation has prompted most economists to factor in a November interest rate hike.
- This week, China’s inflation rate is set to be released, with market expectations forecasting a 0.2% month-on-month increase.
- On Friday, the RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) is due for release, and it is expected that the bank will need to revise its near-term inflation forecasts in response to the Q3 inflation surprise.