Daily Flows & Insights – The Week Ahead & Mixed Data on U.S. Labour Market

Daily Flows

  • Last Friday, an ‘A’ rated foreign branch bank was able to attract considerable flow with a 6-month term deposit offering of 5.19%.
  • There seems to be a bid tone returning to the NCD market, with ADIs more inclined to retain funds than to lose them.
  • It is hard to say what may be driving this, but the TFF final payment window around the corner may be contributing.

Mixed Data on U.S. Labour Market

  • Last week’s U.S. Non-farm payrolls increased by 275K in February, beating market expectations.
  • Although there were job gains, the result was mixed as the unemployment rate did rise to 3.9%.
  • U.S. equities retraced slightly as they reassessed the recent rally, and bond yields were relatively stable.
  • The data confirms that the Fed’s current stance is diligent; they will need to be more patient in raising the victory flag against inflation until there is a clear turning in conditions.

The Week Ahead

  • At the beginning of the week, domestic consumer confidence and business condition reports are released.
  • There will be a lot of focus on U.S. Monthly CPI print and retail sales this week. With the labor market in good condition, there would have to be a significantly dovish data to see the Fed give any indication of future hikes at next week’s meeting.
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Curve Team
Jack Pedersen