Daily Flows & Insights – The Week Ahead

Daily Flows

  • Last week, there was a significant flow directed toward longer-dated liquid instruments in both fixed and floating.
  • In the term deposit space, substantial lifts in reference rates resulted in 5.50% being offered for 5-year terms.
  • The NCD market continues to experience healthy two-way flows, with domestic rates remaining stable at +40 for 3 months.

The Week Ahead

  • The beginning of the week is quiet, with Michelle Bullock scheduled to give her first official speech on Tuesday night. The title of the speech remains undisclosed.
  • The tone around inflation has shifted in the October Board Meeting Minutes, with more weighting placed on the pace of inflation.
  • With Q3 2023 CPI data set to be released the following day, any comments regarding inflation will be closely monitored by the markets.
  • Futures are currently pricing in a 25% chance of an interest rate hike at the upcoming November meeting.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia may tolerate a slightly higher CPI than previously predicted in August if the target path remains intact.
  • In the U.S., towards the end of the week, Q3 GDP and PCE inflation data for September will be released. The PCE is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and is currently at its lowest level since May 2021, after rising less than expected in August.
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Curve Team
Jack Pedersen