Daily Flows & Insights – The Week Ahead

Daily Flows

  • Beyond Bank issued $300 million via a 3-year FRN, with the final margin set at +115.
  • Mid-month inflows are hitting much of the banking system, which could lead to an uptick in NCD activity as banks look to place excess liquidity.
  • The going rate for 1-year term deposits remains at 4.65%, with this rate widely available across the market.

Tariff Talk & Inflation Fears Spook U.S. Consumers

  • U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply, with the University of Michigan index dropping to 57.9 in March, its lowest level since November 2022, as policy uncertainty weighed on confidence.
  • Expectations for future conditions deteriorated significantly, impacting personal finances, labour markets, inflation, business conditions, and stock markets, while current economic conditions remained largely unchanged.
  • Inflation expectations surged, with the one-year outlook rising to 4.9% (highest since Nov 2022) and five-year expectations jumping to 3.9%, marking the largest monthly increase since 1993.
  • Looking ahead, U.S. retail sales data is due Monday night, with a rebound of 0.5% expected after a decline in the previous month.
  • Japan’s central bank meets on Wednesday to decide on interest rates, with the cash rate currently at 0.5%.
  • The week concludes with the Fed meeting, where markets expect no change to the cash rate, alongside the release of Australian employment data.
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Curve Team
Jack Pedersen