Daily Flows & Insights – The Week Ahead

Daily Flows

  • We saw attractive term deposit rates to round out the first quarter of 2024, with A2/BBB banks offering rates of 5.20% for 9 and 12 month deposits on Thursday.
  • Investors were able to secure rates as high as 5.22% from banks looking to plug funding gaps before the Easter weekend.
  • NCD margins attracted flows with rates of +50 for 3 months.

The Week Ahead

  • The US Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, printed as expected at 2.8% year-on-year from February 2023. On a monthly basis the price index rose 0.3%, which also met economists’ expectations.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed to continued economic resilience, highlighted as US Manufacturing PMIs surged in March with a surprisingly strong print, as a reason for the central bank to be patient in delaying any rate cuts.
  • A strong sell-off ensued with the US 10 year finishing yesterday up 11 basis points. Australian yields are up across the curve this morning, with the 3 year up 6bps and the 10 close to 10 basis points on Thursday’s levels.
  • Looking ahead, US employment & non-farm payroll data is out on Thursday which will paint a more detailed picture of the strength of the economy in March.
  • Domestically, the RBA minutes will be released tomorrow with trade data out on Wednesday. Australia’s surplus of $11.02b is expected to narrow to $10.5b.
  • Surveys of business & consumer confidence by NAB and Westpac respectively, due Friday, will provide more colour on economic expectations of business and households for the months ahead. 
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Curve Team
Jack Pedersen