Daily Flows & Insights – Stalling Labor Productivity as All Eyes Turn to Non-Farm Payrolls Tonight

Daily Flows

  • NAB’s 3 year lines attracted bids from Curve’s investor base, with the FRN margin setting at +70 and the fixed coupon at 4.95%.
  • Curve is assisting another client rotate of stock in non-major bank senior paper, with Auswide’s March 2025 FRN indicatively available at +80 and QBANK’s May 2025 line at +140.
  • Term deposit levels remain elevated this week with both major and non-major banks at 5.30% yesterday for 12 month deposits.

Stalling Labor Productivity as All Eyes Turn to Non-Farm Payrolls Tonight

  • US labor productivity stalled in the March quarter, as growth in output per hour of 1.3% in Q1 was offset by a rise of 1% in hours worked. Net productivity grew by 0.3% after revised quarterly growth of 3.5% in December.
  • Tonight’s non-farm payroll data is shaping up to be a significant marker in the Fed’s inflation battle with economists projecting 240,000 new jobs in April on 303,000 in March. Lower demand for labour evident in the print will provide ammunition for proponents of rate cuts this side of December.
  • Australia’s trade surplus narrowed yesterday to $5 billion, the skinniest in over three years, as lower commodity prices and higher demand for foreign imports compressed both sides of the equation.
  • Building approvals rose in March after a worrying fall in February, with the number of new dwellings up 1.9% MoM, albeit lower than an estimate of 3.4% as Australia’s housing supply pressures persist.
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Curve Team
Sarah McGirr