Daily Flows & Insights – Shiny New RBA Kicks off 2024, Tipped to Hold Steady

Daily Flows

  • A1 foreign branch banks continue to welcome NCD inflows and are paying +50 this week after a slight dip in margins towards the end of January.
  • As some of the attractive major bank TD rates start to peter off having now pre-funded their TFF repayments due in June, the A2 & A3 domestic space is starting to show strong relative value.
  • Investors saw rates of up to 5.15% for 6 months from banks keen to retain funds and willing to leapfrog those majors still showing healthy rates, and opportunities will continue for the rest of the week as our ADI partners seek to maintain their liquidity position.


Shiny New RBA Kicks off 2024, Tipped to Hold Steady

  • The RBA’s first interest rate decision of 2024 is out at 2:30pm today with economists universally expecting a second consecutive pause to the cash rate at 4.35%.
  • RBA Governor Michele Bullock will address the media at 3:30pm as part of the package of changes to the central bank’s meeting format and schedule, which includes an explanatory press conference and an earlier release of the Statement of Monetary Policy.
  • Ahead of the release Aussie 10 year bonds were up 12 basis points to 4.09%, and another 9 overnight on futures.
  • Quarterly retail sales are also out today, expected to show slight growth of 0.1% for the December quarter after September’s positive print snapped a preceding hat-trick of declines.
  • An underwhelming monthly print in December does open the door to flat or even negative growth in today’s results, which would increase retailer apprehension that the year ahead could be a slow one.
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Curve Team
Josiah Binet