Shifts in tone from Powell & Employment Data Today 

• Fed Chair Powell struck a firm tone overnight, stressing long-term inflation expectations over the employment mandate. With the Fed’s dual goals “in tension” markets may need clear labour weakness before pricing further cuts.
• March U.S. retail sales jumped 1.4% m/m — the strongest in over two years — driven by advanced vehicle purchases ahead of tariffs. Next month’s release will be key to assessing early tariff effects.
• The Bank of Canada held rates, opting for scenario-based guidance instead of forecasts amid trade uncertainty. As one of the first central banks to decide in this environment, it mirrors challenges facing the RBA.

• In Australia, the March labour force survey is released. Consensus sees March unemployment rising to 4.2%, though a sizeable minority, expect a softer 4.1%. The release will be closely watched as a key input for the RBA’s evolving rate path this year.