![Daily Flows & Insights – Seasonality Plays Into Weak Employment Figures](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdata.curve.com.au%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2023%2F02%2Fpexels-tima-miroshnichenko-7567434-1024x683.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
Daily Flows
- Since the most recent RBA pause, NCD flow has favoured the 6 month tenor, as market participants look take advantage of the 30 basis point gap between 3 month and 6 month reference rates.
- With the major banks end of financial year approaching and loan growth slowing, this gap could minimise as activity slows down.
- TD activity was spread across the curve. An ‘A’ rated bank continues to offer stand out rates with 5.25% for 5 years.
Seasonality Plays Into Weak Employment Figures
- Employment data came in weaker than expected yesterday. Unemployment rose to 3.7% and was driven by decreases in full time employment change.
- The labour market is a key point of concern for the RBA in their fight against inflation.
- Whilst on the surface, this may signal a turning point, volatility of this print needs to be taken into consideration.
- Survey’s taken during school holiday periods often see rises in unemployment as people may be between jobs or have quit.
- “July includes the school holidays, and we continue to see some changes around when people take their leave and start or leave a job. It’s important to consider this when looking at month-to-month changes, compared with the usual seasonal pattern. The only other fall in employment in 2023 was in April, which also included school holidays.”
- The RBA may not take this as the ‘turning point’ but they will consider it a step in the right direction.