Daily Flows & Insights – Retail Sales Continues to Show Resilience

Daily Flows

  • Yesterday, market participants were able to pick up 5.47% for a 1-year term deposit.
  • Recent rises in reference rates have pushed the TD curve price upwards, with 5% being offered from 4 months onwards.
  • Outright 3-month NCD levels are now reaching 4.80%.

Retail Sales Continues to Show Resilience

  • Australian retail turnover increased by 0.9% in September 2023.
  • Previous months saw rises of 0.3% in August and 0.6% in July, with the latter figure being revised upwards.
  • Factors contributing to the September increase included a warmer spring, leading to higher turnover in department stores, household goods, and clothing retailers.
  • Despite the strong September performance, overall growth in retail turnover remains historically low, with only a 1.5% increase in trend terms compared to September 2022.
  • The Head of ABS retail statistics, Mr. Dorber, suggests that a comprehensive understanding of the impact of changing consumer prices on retail turnover growth can be obtained by examining quarterly retail sales volumes, which will be released next week.
  • While this result further supports the RBA’s decision to raise interest rates on Melbourne Cup day, the results may be temporarily as they seem to be driven by one-off factors.
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Curve Team
Jack Pedersen