Daily Flows & Insights – RBNZ: A Compelling Case Study in the Battle Against Inflation:

Daily Market Update

  • Last Friday, investors were able to pick up the Newcastle Greater 5-year FRN at a discount margin of +164. The issue has seen significant trading activity recently, with its price still undergoing adjustments.
  • Globally, central banks are cautious about market price setting behaviour and are consistently advocating for a ‘higher for longer’ stance, resulting in a gradual uptick in yields.
  • This sentiment could drive up longer-term deposit rates, offering market participants an opportunity to secure deposits yielding over 5% for 2 to 5 years.

RBNZ: A Compelling Case Study in the Battle Against Inflation:

  • ANZ’s forecast predicts the RBNZ will raise rates in both February and April, potentially elevating New Zealand’s cash rate to 6%.
  • The RBNZ acted swiftly to increase interest rates and paused hiking in November. However, unforeseen developments in unemployment, non-tradable inflation, and consumption have aligned with ANZ’s projections, with the market now pricing in a hike for May 2024.
  • This scenario could serve as a warning for other central banks facing similar challenges.
  • On the demand side, service inflation may persist, posing challenges, while supply-side factors such as rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions introduce further uncertainties.
  • Meanwhile, the RBA in Australia remains open to options, refraining from ruling out a rate hike and emphasising a data-dependent approach.
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Curve Team
Jack Pedersen