Daily Flows & Insights – RBA tomorrow & The Week Ahead

Daily Flows

  • Short term rates have been creeping up over the last couple of days, with BBSW looking like it will set 5 basis points higher across all terms and 1 Year Aussie swaps reaching a level of 4.20%.
  • With credit spreads for 1 year term consistently being offered at +100, outright rates of 5.20% are expected today.
  • NCD margins are being held at +50 for 3 months as ADIs keep coming to market looking to attract funds.

RBA Tomorrow

  • This week, The RBA meets on Tuesday to make a decision on monetary policy.
  • The market is split on whether or not the RBA will hike.
  • Points for a hike are: a higher than expected monthly CPI, resilient house prices, Auction clearances increasing and a higher than expected wage decision.
  • Market reasoning against a hike include: slowing retail sales, building approvals decline and lending data softening.

The Week Ahead

  • Q1 GDP is released domestically with economists forecasting a rate of 0.3%. A softer than expected read is being called by some economists with weaker consumption and weaker contribution from net exports being the driving forces.
  • In the U.S. important data points include U.S. ISM services, trade balance and consumer credit data.
  • China’s inflation rate, PPI and trade balance is also released.
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Curve Team
Jack Pedersen