RBA in Focus: 25bp Cut Expected, Eyes on SoMP

• The RBA is widely expected to cut the cash rate by 25bp to 3.85% today, with market pricing reflecting a ~95% chance. The decision will be accompanied by updated forecasts in the Statement on Monetary Policy and followed by Governor Bullock’s press conference.
• NAB expects a standard 25bp move but flags that a deteriorating global backdrop could see the RBA act more aggressively, with a 50bp cut a potential front-loaded option.
• Recent data supports a cautious easing path — inflation and wages came in line with RBA forecasts, while household consumption appears softer and global growth risks have increased due to US trade policy.
• Despite volatility in monthly jobs data, the unemployment rate has held steady at 4.1%, helping contain expectations around the pace of further easing.