Daily Flows & Insights – Monthly Retail Sales Slows

Daily Flows

  • Today Police Bank (A-2/BBB+) has launched a 3 year MTN with an initial price guidance of 3mBBSW+115. To place a bid please reach out to your Curve representative.
  • NCD activity was strong yesterday, with a range of domestic issuers securing new funds at +40, alongside foreign branch banks actively participating.
  • The term deposit curve remains relatively flat from 3 months to 1 year, priced in a range of 4.90-5.05%.

Monthly Retail Sales Slows

  • Australia’s retail turnover inched up by 0.1% in September, following a 0.7% rise in August and steady growth in July.
  • The latest retail figures hint that household spending may have levelled off, with retail volumes climbing 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3—marking the strongest increase since Q2 2022.
  • Spending on food fell, with minor declines seen across department stores, clothing, and food retailing, notably influenced by reduced alcohol sales.
  • Retail price growth slowed to 0.6% in the September quarter, signalling consumer sensitivity to prices and responsiveness to discounts.
  • While the labour market remains tight and deflation trends are gradually emerging, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in spending and growth could prompt monetary easing. However, this trend has yet to reach a point where it is priced in by the markets.
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Curve Team
Jack Pedersen