Mixed Signals at Home, CPI Focus Abroad

• The Westpac–MI Consumer Sentiment Index rose 0.5% in June to 92.6, still well below the pre-Liberation Day level of 95.9. Employment expectations declined modestly, signalling caution in household sentiment.
• The NAB Business Survey showed mixed signals for May. Conditions eased to 0 (from +2), while confidence ticked up to +2 (from +1). Weak profitability and a new cycle low in the employment sub-index weighed on the overall read.
• Together, the soft consumer and business data point to a subdued economic outlook and strengthen the case for a more dovish RBA ahead of its July meeting.
• Attention turns to US May CPI tonight, with core inflation expected to rise 0.3% m/m (vs 0.2% prior), lifting the y/y rate to 2.9%. Markets are alert to potential tariff pass-through into prices.