Markets Steady as Trade Deals Make No Progress

• Tariff uncertainty lingers as the US opened a national security review into pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports, raising fears of fresh tariffs. Trade negotiations with China remain stalled.
• Markets steadied overnight, with the US 10-year yield easing to 4.33%, while the Australian 10-year government bond followed suit, ticking down to 4.35%, reflecting a calmer session overall.
• The RBA Minutes reaffirmed two-sided inflation risks and a soft landing base case. But with April predating recent tariff shocks, May is shaping as a key decision point with some in the market calling for a 50bps cut of the cash rate.
• Today’s China Q1 GDP and US retail sales are in focus. Normally market-moving, but with data predating “Liberation Day,” markets are looking ahead to Q2–Q3 outcomes.