Daily Flows

• A BBB rated bank is offering 4.50% for 6 months, though with Christmas approaching, many councils are leaning into longer-term TDs where solid value persists.
• Rabo Bank (A-1/A) continues to lead in the 2–5 year space, offering up to 4.60%, a clear margin above other comparable names.
• The spread between 3m and 6m BBSW has widened to ~16bps, steepening the curve. NCD demand is steady, though fewer names than last week are accepting new funds at +45bps.

Markets Eye Ceasefire Clarity

• Iran responded overnight with a missile strike on a US base in Qatar. President Trump called the move “very weak,” noting Iran had issued advance warning. Oil prices fell sharply as markets saw the action as non-escalatory.
• Trump later announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran would begin within hours and the war would be “considered ended.”
• US Treasuries rallied on dovish Fed comments. Governor Bowman said a rate cut could come as early as July if inflation remains contained. The US 10-year yield fell 3bps to 4.34%.
• Markets now price in 56bps of cuts by year-end (up from 51bps Friday), with 6bps expected in July. Key data ahead of the 30 July meeting: payrolls, CPI, and the 9 July tariff deadline.