Markets Eye Ceasefire Clarity

• Iran responded overnight with a missile strike on a US base in Qatar. President Trump called the move “very weak,” noting Iran had issued advance warning. Oil prices fell sharply as markets saw the action as non-escalatory.
• Trump later announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran would begin within hours and the war would be “considered ended.”
• US Treasuries rallied on dovish Fed comments. Governor Bowman said a rate cut could come as early as July if inflation remains contained. The US 10-year yield fell 3bps to 4.34%.
• Markets now price in 56bps of cuts by year-end (up from 51bps Friday), with 6bps expected in July. Key data ahead of the 30 July meeting: payrolls, CPI, and the 9 July tariff deadline.