Daily Flows

• We saw a day of net outflows to kick off the week which isn’t unusual for a Monday, especially at this time of year which will put a little more pressure on those ADI’s looking to shore up positions
• It puts the investor in the driver’s seat when looking to place funds this week
• The NCD market remains particularly active despite the relatively narrow pricing differential between NCDs and TDs, especially in the short end.
• In the TD space rates are a little more fluid given the ongoing strong demand for longer term funding.

Last RBA Day of the Year

• There will be plenty to keep an eye on today with the latest monthly business survey serving as a precursor to the RBA board meeting this afternoon.
• Following the RBA’s meeting and release of their statement at 2:30, the RBA Governor will front the media at 3:30 for a press conference where there will be plenty of pressing questions.
• Markets are still pricing in the first interest rate cut to be delivered in May with two more to follow in August and November.
• The most recent economist survey shows a similar guide path however the range amongst those survey has the cash rate at the end of 2025 sitting between 4% and 2.85%.
• It is clear that there is a widening disconnect between what is happening at the aggregate level in the economy and how households are faring at the individual level giving policy makers plenty to think about.