Daily Flows

• Heartland Bank remains top of the market for 1-year term deposits, trading at 4.40%, with consistent interest from market participants looking to lock in their introductory rates.
• NCD pricing is steady across the curve, with +45bp over BBSW still the clearing level amid ongoing demand.
• Flows are calm to start the week as markets await key data, with Australian Q1 CPI due tomorrow likely to guide near-term rate expectations.

Headlines Drive Sentiment in Quiet Session

• With no major data overnight, sentiment was headline-driven, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stating it’s up to China to de-escalate tensions — reversing some of last week’s trade optimism.
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell 6bps to 4.21%, while Australian 10-years are at 4.18% this morning.
• CBA downgraded its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.4% (from 2.9%) due to trade pressures, supporting market expectations for up to five RBA cuts this year.
• Locally, attention turns to a speech today from RBA Assistant Governor Kent on “Australia’s External Position” ahead of tomorrow’s key Q1 CPI print.