Daily Flows & Insights – Forward-Looking Indicators Signal Easing in the Labour Market

Daily Flows

  • Market participants who invested in the BBB term deposit space enjoyed considerably higher yields, locking in 15 basis points above  ‘A’ rated offerings.
  • A standout rate of 5.50% for a 9-month term deposit was offered yesterday to attract funds.
  • Outright NCD 6-month levels are comfortably above 5.00% and are having larger flow as cash managers chase term premium.

Forward-Looking Indicators Signal Easing in the Labour Market

  • ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads experienced a significant monthly decline of 4.6% in November, following a -3.4% decline in October.
  • While there has been a fall of 16.8% from November 2022 highs, it is still elevated when compared to pre-pandemic levels.
  • The most significant part of the release seems to be the downward trend over the last 3 months of -8.4%.
  • This data is significantly more forward-looking compared to ABS employment data.
  • The downward trend in job opportunities signals a cooling labor market, suggesting a potential increase in the unemployment rate.
  • This data, along with a larger-than-expected fall in company gross profits and an increase in business inventories, supports the market sentiment that the RBA will hold off on raising the cash rate today.
  • With a hold priced in by markets, investors should not expect huge movements in the yield curve after today’s RBA decision. The GDP release on Wednesday will prove to be more influential if an unexpected result occurs.
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Curve Team
Jack Pedersen