Daily Flows & Insights – Employment Data 

Daily Flows

  • No chance in demand, with a number of ADIs on the hunt for some funding prior to Christmas.
  • For those who can invest in the unrated TD space, we are seeing 5.15% for 3-6mth TD funds. Theses become even more appealing with the drop in reference rates.
  • In the NCD space we are seeing a couple of +50 margins floating around.

Employment Data

  • The big focus for markets today will be on the employment release – one of the key economic statistics the RBA is looking at to inform their next rate decision. Recently it has been persistently strong and with market expectations of a 25,000 rise in number employed this is set to continue. Forecasts are for a slight change in the unemployment rate moving from 4.1% to 4.2%  – moving in the right direction from the RBA’s point of view.
  • Overnight the US inflation data came in as expected for November (headline and core 0.3%). Focus will be on the Fed this week and pricing for a rate cut this week have increased so look for a 25 point cut.
  • Also cutting is the Canadian central bank who dropped the cash rate by 50% but signalled a possible re-assessment from here.
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Curve Team
David Flanagan