Economic and Interest Rate Events Overview

United States:

• Treasury Yields: Yields rose 1-3bps across the curve despite mixed Fed commentary.
  • Dovish signals: Fed’s Goolsbee suggested caution on rate cuts.
  • Hawkish signals: Fed’s Bowman emphasized inflation vigilance.
• Labour Market:
  • Initial jobless claims fell to 213k, the lowest since April, highlighting labour market resilience.
  • Continuing claims increased to 1.908m, indicating prolonged job searches.
• Manufacturing: The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to -5.5, reflecting ongoing contraction in manufacturing activity.
• Interest Rate Expectations: Markets are pricing a 25bps rate cut in December, contingent on further data.

Australia:

On Monday, December 2, 2024, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released several key economic indicators:

• Retail Trade (October 2024): Retail turnover increased by 0.6% from September, surpassing market expectations of a 0.4% rise. This marks the third consecutive month of growth, driven by early discounting and improved consumer confidence.
• Building Approvals (October 2024): The total number of dwelling units approved rose by 4.2%, led by a surge in apartment developments in New South Wales and Victoria. However, private sector house approvals declined, indicating a mixed outlook in the housing sector.
• Business Indicators (September Quarter 2024): Company gross operating profits fell by 1.7%, with the mining sector experiencing an 8.8% decline due to reduced coal and iron ore exports. This downturn poses challenges for the federal budget, which is already projecting a deficit.