Consumer Momentum Shows Fresh Weakness

• In Australia, retail trade rose just 0.2% in May, below expectations of 0.5%, leaving the annual growth rate at 3.3%.
• Retail sales, often volatile, will be discontinued after next month. Friday’s Household Spending Indicator will offer a more complete read on consumer momentum.
• The weak result keeps the RBA on alert to the risk that consumption continues to underperform even its downgraded May forecast.
• Globally, Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam (20% tariffs on Vietnamese goods, 40% on transshipments), while UK gilt yields surged 16bps to 4.61% on fiscal concerns.
• US non-farm payrolls data headlines tonight, with the unemployment rate expected to hold near 4.3%. Markets will close early for Independence Day.