Daily Flows & Insights – Calm Before The Storm

Daily Flows

  • Friday was no excuse for flows to slow down last week with strong NCD activity once again in the 3 month region while TDs continue to flow into the 6 and 12 month bucket.
  • Incumbent ADI’s continue to defend maturities putting more pressure on those ADI’s who seek additional funding to lift their offers.
  • So far we haven’t seen a margin increase spiral emerge but it could develop if additional funding doesn’t emerge over the coming weeks.
  • As far as pricing goes we continue to see leading 3 month NCD levels ranging from +40 to +45 in the three months with the 1 year at +70 looking attractive to those looking to lock in
  • The pricing curve for TDs still has some shape in it out to 12 months which still remains in striking distance of 5% before flattening out for 2-5 years.

Calm Before The Storm

  • After a stacked week of data behind us which left its mark on the outlook, things will me markedly quieter this week
  • We will get the minutes from the RBA’s April meeting although we are likely to see little to move the market.
  • Aside from that, markets will be left to their own devices which could actually result in more volatility not less as positions are taken ahead of the following week.
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Curve Team
Jack Pedersen