With the yield curve inverting from 6 months – 1 year, A limited offering of 4.90% for 12 months in the BBB space continues to attract flow.
Coming into a new month, expect to see an up tick in activity with ADIs keen to get ahead on monthly funding requirements.
NCD margins continue to remain elevated at +40 for 3 month NCDs with two way flows slightly favouring the bid side.
Big Week for Monetary Policy
With the start of a new month there is a big week ahead for markets, with the FED, European Central bank and RBA having meetings on their monetary policy.
In the US, the FED has a tough job picking the best direction for monetary policy. Growth in GDP starting to decline, however personal consumption expenditure (PCE), which is a preferred measure for inflation by the body, is still growing and the labour market is remaining tight.
The expectation ahead of the US and European meetings is a further hike of 0.25%, however with mixed data reports this is not a certainty.
In Australia, the market has strongly priced in a pause ahead of the RBA decision tomorrow for a pause, and a 40% chance of a hike in August.
For investors and banks the chances are that we have seen peak rates offered, with the yield curve flattening over the past month and beginning to steepen.
This will give both sides of the money market more certainty when it comes to locking in longer term deposits.