Daily Flows & Insights – Bank of England Joins the Hike Chorus
(Bloomberg 2023)

Daily Flows

  • Suncorp’s bond issuance on Wednesday has seen significant secondary market trading.
  • Today, there is opportunity to pick up the A+ rated 3 year floating bond with an attractive trading margin.
  • TD demand for funds is picking up in the BBB/BBB+ space. Levels of 5.00% for 6 months and 4.90% for 1 year are being snapped up by market participants.
  • The NCD market continues to have a bid tone, with +45 being offered for 3 months as well as an introductory special of +50 for 2/3 months.

The Bank of England Joins The Rate Hike Chorus

  • We saw another central bank rate hike for May last night with the Bank of England hiking by 25bp, taking their overnight rate to 4.50%
  • They also upgraded the growth outlook from a recession to 0.25% this year.
  • Despite the bleak outlook on growth, the unemployment rate is near a record low of 3.8%, slightly above the current rate of unemployment here in Australia.
  • The major difference for the BoE is that wages are growing at 6.6%, almost double the rate in Australia making the central banks challenge even greater.

Market Expectations For Tightening Fading

  • Following the Bank of England’s rate hike overnight, the market no longer has any further rate hikes fully priced for the next run of central bank meetings.
  • That list included the US Fed, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, European Central Bank, Bank of England and of course the RBA.
  • Of that list, the market has the US Fed, Bank of Canada and the RBA all in a holding pattern with rate cuts on the horizon.
  • Meanwhile market expectations are that we will see a little more from the Bank of England, European Central Bank and Reserve Bank of New Zealand before they too enter a holding pattern.
  • Of course, market pricing isn’t always right and if inflation remains elevated then this outlook could quickly change.
  • For now, though, it appears as if we are entering a new phase for monetary policy globally.
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Curve Team
David Flanagan