Daily Flows & Insights – Australian Trade Surplus Widens

Daily Flows

  • Reference rates have shown lower volatility towards the end of the week.
  • Currently, the Aussie Swaps curve stands at 4.25% to 4.30% for 1 to 3 years, with the 5-year rate at 4.53%.
  • Flow has been directed toward 1-year, where outright TD levels have reached 5.30%.
  • Some NCD flow persists in longer durations as market participants seek to capitalise on any remaining yield differentials between 3 and 6-month rates.

Australian Trade Surplus Widens

  • Australia’s trade surplus expanded to $9.64 billion yesterday, surpassing market expectations and exceeding the previous month’s $7.32 billion.
  • Exports registered a 4% growth, while imports declined by -0.4%.
  • The surge in exports was primarily fuelled by ores and minerals, driven by increased demand from China.
  • Import growth was attributed to fuel and lubricants, reflecting the impact of higher international oil prices.
  • Despite robust trade between China and Australia, China’s housing crisis remains a point of concern for future demand.

Markets Await U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

  • The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report is scheduled for release tonight, with expectations of a 170,000 job increase.
  • Over the last three months, NFPs have shown a declining trend since Q1, and the ADP report suggests a potential slowdown in hiring this month.
  • The stronger-than-expected JOLTs data has made markets cautious, as it hints at the possibility of a robust NFP print.
  • If the results align with the forecasts of 150,000 jobs, the data would indicate a gradual easing of labor market tightness, offering relief to the Federal Reserve in their efforts to curb inflation.


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Curve Team
Jack Pedersen