Daily Flows & Insights – Australian Inflation & U.S. Interest Rate Decision 

Daily Flows

  • Friday saw a big pickup in TD activity, funds were placed across the curve with a variety of banks.
  • Market participants were able to pick up 5.35% for 3 months, 5.65% for 6 months & 5.75% for 1 year.
  • NCD margins have remained at +45 for 3 months from domestic banks.

Australian Inflation & U.S. Interest Rate Decision

  • This week, domestic Inflation data for Q2 is released mid-week.
  • An out of the ordinary print here could be pivotal to the decision to hike or not hike the cash rate next Tuesday.
  • The inflation rate is expected to come down to 6.3% YoY & the trimmed mean inflation to ease from 6.6% to 6%.
  • In the U.S. GDP data and the interest rate decision happens this week.
  • Markets are expecting an increase of 25 basis points to the cash rate, taking the target range to 5.25%-5.5%.
  • Commentators will be watching for any clues as to if this marks the end of the rate hike cycle or more is to come.
  • To finish off the week, domestic retail sales data is released.
  • Private banking data has indicated slow down in spending recently, however May’s retail sales was stronger than expected (partly driven by seasonal factors) so hopefully this print provides a clearer picture.
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Curve Team
Jack Pedersen