Daily Flows & Insights – As Always, The RBA Keeps Their Options Open

Daily Flows

  • Curve is able to offer an attractive margin on the UBS 02/2026 Floating Rate note. If you have interest please reach out to your Curve representative.
  • The TFF repayment window is seeing cheap funding removed from the system. This paired with seasonal tightness in the funding market may see liquidity highly sought after over the coming months.
  • As the RBA seems to have entered a holding pattern, market participants can expect less volatile outright NCD margins at the shorter end of the curve.

As Always, The RBA Keeps Their Options Open

  • The RBA meeting minutes contained all the familiar central bank rhetoric, considering all options but holding rates as they monitored the data coming in.
  • There was discussion to raise interest rates but the new inflation forecast path meant is was deemed unnecessary.
  • One point interesting to note is there was no consideration of easing rates.
  • It seems the hurdle to rise interest rates is now incredibly high considering the new inflation forecasts released in the SOMP.
  • Going forward the most likely route seems like a cut next February.
  • A more gradual decline in consumption which is being propped up by population growth or a quicker than expected easing in the labour market are key areas of uncertainty which could bring forward cut expectations.
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Curve Team
Jack Pedersen