Focus Turns to Growth

• US JOLTS data came in stronger than expected, with job openings rising to 7.39 million in April (vs 7.1m forecast), reinforcing a resilient labour market and consolidating expectations that the Fed will stay on hold.
• RBA Minutes from May revealed an active discussion around a 25–50bp rate cut versus a hold, but soft consumption data since the meeting, has increased the likelihood of further easing.
• RBA Chief Economist Sarah Hunter noted global trade disruptions could raise costs, delay supply chains, and weigh on demand — adding downside risks to the economy and growth outlook.
• GDP data is due at 11:30am, with market consensus at +0.3% q/q. This compares with the RBA’s May forecast of +0.5%, making today’s release a key guidepost ahead of the July 8 meeting.