Daily Flows & Insights – Retail Sales Retraces After Last Month

Daily Flows

  • There is a clear favouring of Green-Friendly counterparties developing amongst market participants investing funds. Yesterday, a green-friendly counterparty was able to pick up significant flow at the shorter end of the curve.
  • In the NCD space a bid tone has seen +45 being paid for new funds.
  • Markets participants continue to lock in 5 year term deposits, locking in 5.13% from an ‘A’ rated counterparty.

Retail Sales Retraces After Last Month

  • January retail sales increased by 1.1%, below the market’s 1.5% expectation but surpassing Westpac’s forecast of 0.3%.
  • Sales volatility attributed to challenges in adjusting for seasonal shifts, particularly around ‘Black Friday’ sales.
  • Strong rebounds in clothing, household goods, and department stores in January, influenced by Black Friday period.
  • Looking over the last three months, retail sales continues to be weak and points towards a continued slowdown in demand.

U.S. PCE Inline with Expectations.

  • The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure Index came inline with expectations, rising by 3.0% MoM and by 0.4% MoM.
  • Personal income was up slightly but spending was fairly subdued.
  • The print is not jarring enough to warrant any changes to the Feds current near term outlook.
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Curve Team
Jack Pedersen