Daily Flows

• 4.50% remains the top rate for 5-month TDs, with flow remaining strong into month-end.
• An A-rated bank is leading across the 1–5 year curve, with rates peaking at 4.70%. These remain well above major bank levels and continue to attract interest from investors looking long term value.
• NEWCAP Sept-29s FRN are available around +112bps over 3m BBSW, offering a material pickup versus similarly rated names.

US Data Disappoints as Month-End Flows Stay Firm

• US bond yields fell after a strong 7-year note auction and softer economic data. The 10-year dropped 6bps to 4.42%, and the 2-year declined 5bps to 3.94%.]
• US Q1 GDP was revised to -0.2% from -0.3%, but the details were weak. Consumer spending growth was cut to 1.2% (slowest since Q2 2023), and Q1 profits fell 2.9% q/q — suggesting soft domestic demand ahead of April tariff increases.
• Legal and political uncertainty lingers after a court ruling delay and reports of Trump urging Fed Chair Powell to cut rates.
• Focus now turns to April retail sales (Friday). A stronger-than-expected result (forecast: +0.5%) could shape short-end yields and influence RBA expectations ahead of July.