Daily Insights – Unemployment Stable Amid Slowing Employment Growth

Unemployment Stable Amid Slowing Employment Growth

  • The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 4.2%, in line with consensus.
  • Employment fell by 5,000, with full-time employment down 40,000 and part-time employment rising by 35,500.
  • With the number of unemployed falling by 5,000, the participation rate also declined by 0.1% to 66.8%.
  • This was broadly in line with market expectations and the RBA’s outlook that employment will remain close to full employment, with growth aligning with population trends.
  • The trend continues to show that employment is cooling very gradually, with annual growth at only 1.5%.
  • The data had little impact on the monetary policy outlook with a cut 85% priced in by markets in November. Forward indicators suggest the labour market is likely to remain relatively stable.

In Commemoration of Talk Like a Pirate Day!

  • Blimey! The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be holdin’ fast at 4.2%, just as the market scallywags foretold, yo-ho-ho!
  • Employment fell by 5,000 souls, with full-time hands droppin’ 40,000 souls, and part-time crew risin’ by 35,500 souls—aye, the tides be tricky on this here voyage, arrr!
  • With the number o’ unemployed droppin’ by 5,000 souls, the participation rate also slid 0.1% to 66.8%—steady as she goes, me hearties!
  • This be broadly in line with the market spyglass and the RBA’s forecast, that employment will stay near full mast, growth keepin’ pace with the population tides, yo-ho-ho!
  • The trend still shows employment coolin’ ever so slowly, with annual growth at a mere 1.5%—as sluggish as a becalmed sea, shiver me timbers!
  • This data made little splash in the monetary waters, with markets already pricein’ an 85% chance o’ a November cut. Lookin’ ahead, the labour market be expected to sail mostly steady, with few storms on the horizon, arrrr, yo-ho-ho!

 

 

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Curve Team
Jack Pedersen