Tariff Threats, Rate Cuts and Safe-Haven Flows Shape Market Tone

• President Trump threatened he would impose a 100% tariff on imports from China from 1 November. US government bond yields fell to multi‑week lows on Friday as investors looked to safe‑haven assets. The US 10‑year Treasury yield fell by 9 points to 4.06% and the US 2‑year Treasury yield dropped 7 points to 3.53%.
• Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment showed limited impact from the initial stages of the US government shutdown. The BLS will publish the September US CPI report on 24 October, despite the shutdown.
• The RBNZ cut its official cash rate by 50 bps to 2.5% at its October 2025 meeting, a larger-than-expected move that brought rates to their lowest level since mid-2022. Markets are expecting another cut of 25bp at the November review.
• Domestically the focus is on the release of RBA minutes and the September Labour Force Survey, with attention on how the Bank characterises a labour market it recently described as broadly steady in recent months.