Retail Surge Signals Momentum

• Market focus today remains on ongoing tariff developments, with the fate of several countries, Australia among them, expected to become clearer through Executive Orders ahead of Trump’s 1 August trade deadline.
• The June House Price Index posted a 0.6% rise across capital cities in July, matching the pace seen in June and reinforcing the trend of steady growth.
• Retail trade data surprised to the upside yesterday, with Q2 sales jumping 1.2% versus the 0.4% expected. Volumes also rose 0.3% q/q, above the 0.1% forecast.
• This marks four straight quarters of positive volume growth, though the annual run rate remains soft at 1.5% y/y. Taken together, recent May and June data point to some mild strengthening in overall activity.
• Locally, eyes will be on today’s producer price figures, while in the US focus shifts to nonfarm payrolls and consumer confidence data, wrapping up a data-heavy week.