RBA Minutes Support Data-Dependent Path

• Markets viewed Fed Chair Powell’s speech as consistent with continued rate cuts this year, while also signalling a possible end to balance-sheet run-off in the coming months. US Treasury yields were lower; the 10-year yield fell from 4.04% to 4.02%.
• Australian Government bond yields were also lower; the 10-year yield fell from 4.31% to 4.26%.
• RBA meeting minutes reinforce a cautious, data-dependent path as we await the full Q3 CPI on October 29. Markets are pricing a 45% chance of a 25 bp cut to the cash rate on November 4.
• The NAB business sentiment survey showed confidence rose in September to above its long-term average; business conditions were flat, and a broad easing in pricing pressures continued.
• Looking ahead: in Australia, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks; overseas, China inflation data is due, and the US Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book.