Markets Watch Data and Trade Developments

• A US–EU trade agreement was announced over the weekend, setting a 15% tariff on US imports from the bloc, mirroring the recent US–Japan deal, with lowered tariffs but concessions favouring US exports.
• It’s a data-heavy week in the US, with the Fed’s July policy meeting, Q2 GDP, and PCE inflation all due. Markets expect the FOMC to hold rates steady.
• Locally, all eyes are on Wednesday’s Q2 CPI release. Consensus expects a trimmed mean of 0.7% q/q and 2.7% y/y, a touch above the RBA’s May SoMP forecast of 0.6% and 2.6%.
• The result will be key to shaping expectations for the RBA’s next move, particularly after the cautious tone struck in last week’s Anika speech.