Global Bond Markets Steady as Rate Cut Expectations Build

• The US treasury physical market was closed for Columbus Day, but futures traded, implying the 10yr yield ranged between 4.04% and 4.07%.  Markets have almost fully priced a 25bp cut to the current Fed funds rate of 4.125% at the next meeting on 30 October, with around five more cuts in total in this easing cycle.
• Japanese markets were also closed, but European bonds were relatively stable, as ZEW confidence surveys may show investors remain cautiously optimistic.
• Australian government bond yields have fallen across the curve. Markets price a 50% chance the RBA cash rate, currently at 3.60%, will be cut by 25bp at the next meeting on 4 November, with only one more cut in this easing cycle.
• It is a quiet day for data releases, with the RBA minutes released for the September meeting, when the RBA was unanimously on hold as expected. The NAB business confidence survey will also be published, In August Business conditions rose 2 points to sit around their long run average level.