Energy Risks Lift Global Yields

• Global markets remain focused on escalating tensions in the Middle East. Higher oil prices overnight fed into inflation expectations, pushing US yields higher as investors weighed the risk of any prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The move flowed through to local rates, with the Australian 10-year trading around 4.75% and futures markets now leaning toward roughly one and a half further hikes priced through to end-2026.
• In the US, the 10-year Treasury lifted close to 10bps to sit near 4.05%, reflecting a renewed inflation premium across the curve.
• Domestically, housing data showed price growth continuing to moderate. The Cotality index rose 0.7% in February, slightly softer than January’s pace, with Sydney and Melbourne broadly flat on the month.
• Annual growth eased to 9.6% from 10.2%, reinforcing that momentum in dwelling values and turnover is slowing as rate expectations shift, though overall conditions remain resilient.