Daily Flows
- Market participants were able to secure +40 for 3–6 month NCDs, with an outright level of 5.06% offered for 6 months.
- Today, Bendigo has launched a 5-year fixed/floating bond with an initial price guidance of +87.
- There was strong TD activity yesterday, with the standout rate being 5.16% for 6 months from an ‘A’-rated bank.
U.S. Data Affirms Progress Towards Disinflation
- Recent indicators, including U.S. jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, highlight signs of economic cooling that may support the disinflation process.
- Initial jobless claims dropped to 213,000, the lowest since April, underscoring the resilience of the labour market. However, a rise in continuing claims to 1.908 million points to longer job searches for many.
- The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -5.5 in November, revealing a broad slowdown in manufacturing activity, with declines in shipments, new orders, and prices paid amid tight monetary conditions.
- Persistent shelter inflation continues to complicate the disinflation narrative and remains a key factor in the Federal Reserve’s rate policy decisions.
- A 25-basis-point rate cut remains a possibility for December, though the Fed appears to be shifting towards a more cautious pace of monetary easing, with fewer consecutive cuts expected.
- Treasury yields rose 1–3 basis points across the curve, reflecting divergent commentary from Goolsbee, who struck a dovish tone, and Bowman, who signalled a more hawkish stance.
