Trade Uncertainty Lingers and Local Data Tilts Dovish

• Trade tensions remain in focus after President Trump announced a tariff hike on steel and aluminium imports from 25% to 50%, reviving protectionist concerns and weighing on sentiment.
• US Treasury yields fell into the weekend, with the 10-year down 3bps to 4.40% as investors responded to softer risk tone and lingering geopolitical uncertainty.
• Locally, April retail sales fell 0.1%, a weak print that adds weight to growing expectations the RBA could cut rates at its July meeting.
• This week’s focus includes Q1 GDP (Wednesday, expected +0.4% q/q), RBA Minutes, and a speech from the RBA’s Hunter.
• In the US, Friday’s payrolls report is a key release expected to shed more light on economic momentum two months after Liberation Day in April.