All Eyes on RBA Decision

• Risk sentiment eased overnight as President Trump issued formal tariff notices to countries including Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia. Rates set to begin 1 August include 25% on core imports, matching those announced on ‘Liberation Day’.
• US bond yields rose across the curve, led by the long end. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 4bps to 4.38%.
• Locally, the RBA is widely expected to cut the cash rate by 25bps to 3.60%, with markets fully pricing in 23.8bps ahead of today’s meeting.
• Focus will turn to Governor Bullock’s press conference and statement for forward guidance. If the expected cut proceeds, the new 3.60% policy rate will sit within the RBA’s estimated neutral range—making any discussion of that range a key watch point.